Is it Possible to Break Strategic Intelligence's Glass Ceiling?

ABSTRACT: There is a sense among many experts that intelligence methodology in the national security and business fields has reached a "glass ceiling". This sense is caused by the gaps between the expectations of decision makers and the performance of intelligence organizations in both fields. From the comparison of these two fields, this study recommends applying the experience accumulated in the business field in order to improve the national security field, and vice versa. The central finding of the paper is distinguishing between "concentrated surprise" and "diffuse surprise." The observation of "diffuse surprise" requires dynamic and adaptive vision, which makes it easier to predict the development of this sort of surprise.

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