How the General Staff Misses Emerging Phenomena: The Tunnel Threat as a Case Study

ABSTRACT: Through a detailed historic study of the development of the tunnel threat, spanning two decades, the writers point to the General Staff's difficulty to function as an effective learning system. In the absence of a conceptual framework that defines both a comprehensive strategy and the system that functions within it, the General Staff struggled to identify the subterranean threat as anything beyond a technical-operational challenge. Whilst the tunnels threat is now handled by the IDF as a strategic threat in every theatre, analysis of the case study demonstrate a fundamental necessity to scrutinize the General Staff's capability to actualize its role as a learning apparatus and strategic operator with regard to unknown emerging phenomena.

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